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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+7.08vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.90+8.55vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+2.18vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.01+5.64vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.77+1.73vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.38+2.31vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida2.92+3.19vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.21+0.91vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.42-0.93vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-0.98vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.37+1.44vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.42+0.52vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-1.74vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.73-7.34vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.24-6.14vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.68-4.71vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.19-1.11vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College3.56-10.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.08Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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5.18Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.64Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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6.73Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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8.31Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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10.19University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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8.91Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.07Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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12.44Cornell University2.370.0%1st Place
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12.52Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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11.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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6.66Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.86Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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11.29Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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15.89SUNY Maritime College1.190.0%1st Place
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7.4Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| William Crary | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.1% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Russell Clarida | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Baird | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| David Larson | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Luke Andersen | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 10.2% |
| Jackson Wagner | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 9.1% |
| Kayla Ellis | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 4.8% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 5.8% |
| Andrew Hall | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 56.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.