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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+7.06vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+6.92vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+2.25vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.24+4.80vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.73+1.85vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.38+2.31vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.90+3.25vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+3.31vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.77-2.29vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.01+0.09vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.68+0.27vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.92-1.42vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.42-5.03vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.21-5.30vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.37-2.67vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College3.56-8.36vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.42-4.73vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.19-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.06Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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5.25Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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6.85Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.31Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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10.25University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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6.71Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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10.09Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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11.27Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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10.58University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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7.97Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.7Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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12.33Cornell University2.370.0%1st Place
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7.64Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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12.27Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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15.69SUNY Maritime College1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| David Larson | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.1% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| William Crary | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 2.4% |
| Kayla Ellis | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 6.2% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Russell Clarida | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Scott Goodrich | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 5.8% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Luke Andersen | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 9.5% |
| Andrew Hall | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 52.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.