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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.84vs Predicted
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2Brown University4.49+6.27vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University4.78+4.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+3.66vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.64+7.07vs Predicted
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6Yale University4.19+3.72vs Predicted
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7Harvard University4.52+1.44vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+4.64vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.70+2.74vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.76+1.64vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.06-0.74vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-0.80vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut2.51+3.74vs Predicted
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14Boston College4.89-7.52vs Predicted
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15Stanford University4.05-4.81vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.63-3.91vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University3.92-6.35vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy4.34-8.98vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin2.72-3.35vs Predicted
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20Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79-8.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.84St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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8.27Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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7.16Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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12.07College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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9.72Yale University4.190.0%1st Place
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8.44Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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12.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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11.74Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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11.64Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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10.26Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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11.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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16.74University of Connecticut2.510.0%1st Place
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6.48Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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10.19Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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12.09Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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10.65Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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15.65University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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11.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Cy Thompson | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Mac Mace | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| Joseph Morris | 4.3% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Alan Palmer | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% |
| Massimo Soriano | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| Stephanie Roble | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Sam Williams | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Sommer | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Sean Andrew | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 40.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 9.9% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Daniel Perkins | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Robert Vann | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Brendan Boylan | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 18.7% | 25.4% |
| Sam Padnos | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.