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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.88vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.32+2.02vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.42+0.87vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.14+4.28vs Predicted
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6Drexel University-0.19+4.11vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.49-3.25vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University0.85-0.58vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.87-3.89vs Predicted
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10Rutgers University-0.35+0.50vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.52-5.04vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-0.17vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.28-3.88vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.30-3.43vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-1.81-1.54vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-1.07-3.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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4.02George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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3.87U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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9.28Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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10.11Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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3.75George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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7.42Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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5.11Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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10.5Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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5.96Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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11.83SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.12Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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13.46St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
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12.11Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lutz | 28.6% | 22.8% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 13.7% | 17.4% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 16.9% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Barrett Adams | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 15.0% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Seitz | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 9.7% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 4.2% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 18.6% | 15.9% |
| John Kirk | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 5.5% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 18.5% | 48.9% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 23.4% | 19.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.