Race 2A

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
James Morgan 16.2% 17.3% 16.2% 14.1% 13.3% 9.9% 5.7% 3.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Derek Poon Tip 18.2% 16.7% 15.9% 17.0% 13.4% 8.1% 5.6% 3.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Schmidt 5.9% 7.6% 9.0% 7.9% 14.1% 13.9% 13.9% 11.6% 7.6% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Daniel Sullivan 1.2% 2.4% 1.9% 3.9% 2.4% 5.7% 8.0% 9.8% 12.1% 13.4% 13.4% 10.9% 8.7% 4.6% 1.6%
Jonathan Lutz 26.8% 22.4% 17.4% 14.9% 7.9% 5.8% 2.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anders Ekholm 7.1% 10.5% 11.2% 13.1% 15.0% 14.5% 11.9% 6.6% 6.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sydney Seitz 4.0% 3.8% 4.9% 4.9% 6.0% 9.2% 13.9% 13.9% 15.0% 9.4% 7.1% 4.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Wade Wagner 15.0% 13.9% 15.2% 14.9% 13.6% 11.7% 7.3% 5.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sean Crandall 0.7% 0.8% 1.6% 1.0% 2.1% 3.7% 5.5% 7.9% 9.3% 12.9% 14.3% 14.1% 12.1% 10.2% 3.8%
Barrett Adams 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 2.7% 4.0% 6.4% 7.7% 9.2% 13.2% 14.3% 14.1% 10.9% 8.9% 3.5%
John Kirk 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 3.3% 4.2% 7.4% 8.8% 10.2% 13.5% 13.4% 11.9% 8.9% 7.2% 3.1% 1.7%
Mary Morgan 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.2% 4.2% 7.6% 8.6% 10.2% 13.8% 16.4% 13.3% 12.3% 4.9%
Jessica Kurlander 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.6% 2.6% 2.5% 4.2% 4.9% 7.9% 8.2% 10.6% 18.8% 19.7% 17.4%
Joseph Marin 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 3.0% 3.8% 3.9% 7.2% 9.5% 12.4% 15.3% 21.8% 18.9%
Jack Cooper 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 2.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.8% 6.6% 11.0% 18.7% 48.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.