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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.87+3.99vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.80vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.42+0.82vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.32+0.06vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.49-1.18vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.52-0.13vs Predicted
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7Rutgers University-0.35+3.44vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University0.85-1.49vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.14-0.73vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-1.07+1.17vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-0.39-1.33vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.28-3.92vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-0.19-3.69vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-3.19vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.81-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.99Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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2.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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3.82U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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4.06George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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3.82George Washington University2.490.2%1st Place
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5.87Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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10.44Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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7.51Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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9.27Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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12.17Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.67University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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9.08Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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10.31Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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13.38St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Ekholm | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 28.8% | 23.6% | 17.9% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 15.2% | 16.4% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 13.8% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 15.8% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 5.0% |
| Sydney Seitz | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 23.3% | 18.6% |
| Evan Shone | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 7.2% |
| John Kirk | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 8.1% | 4.1% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 20.8% | 13.8% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 17.8% | 49.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.