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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.49+2.57vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.74vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.87+1.79vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.32-0.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.42-1.18vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.52-0.37vs Predicted
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7Drexel University-0.19+2.68vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.14+0.90vs Predicted
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9Rutgers University-0.35+1.17vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware-0.39+0.27vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.28-2.42vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University-0.72-1.79vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.07-1.99vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-1.81-1.75vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57George Washington University2.490.2%1st Place
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2.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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4.79Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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3.95George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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3.82U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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5.63Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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9.68Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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8.9Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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10.17Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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10.27University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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8.58Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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11.21Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.01Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
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13.25St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
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11.45SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Poon Tip | 18.4% | 18.6% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 30.0% | 22.4% | 18.6% | 13.9% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 14.7% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 15.9% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 15.7% | 14.9% | 17.6% | 15.8% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 17.6% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Adams | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 3.9% |
| Evan Shone | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 4.4% |
| John Kirk | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 9.8% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 20.2% | 18.9% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 15.9% | 46.6% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 18.3% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.