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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.52+4.49vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.49+1.56vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.87+1.84vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.20vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.32-0.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.42-2.23vs Predicted
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7Rutgers University-0.35+3.10vs Predicted
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8University of Delaware-0.39+2.23vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College0.28-0.44vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.14-1.99vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-0.19-2.25vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University-0.72-1.78vs Predicted
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14St. John's College-1.81-0.61vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-1.07-3.19vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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3.56George Washington University2.490.2%1st Place
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4.84Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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2.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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4.02George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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3.77U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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10.1Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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8.56Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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9.01Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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9.75Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.22Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.39St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
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11.81Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.45SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Schmidt | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 16.5% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 16.6% | 19.5% | 17.8% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 29.1% | 21.6% | 17.7% | 14.7% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 14.4% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 15.6% | 16.3% | 16.0% | 17.7% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% |
| Evan Shone | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 3.7% |
| John Kirk | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Barrett Adams | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Amanda Nuse | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 9.9% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 48.6% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.