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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.80vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.52+3.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.42+0.71vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.32-0.06vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.87-0.02vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.49-3.38vs Predicted
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8University of Delaware-0.39+2.18vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College0.28-0.48vs Predicted
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10Rutgers University-0.35+0.12vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University-0.72+0.10vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-0.19-2.24vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.32vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.07-1.99vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.14-6.11vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.81-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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5.49Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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3.71U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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3.94George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.98Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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3.62George Washington University2.490.2%1st Place
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10.18University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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8.52Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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10.12Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.1Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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9.76Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.68SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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12.01Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
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8.89Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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13.2St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lutz | 29.2% | 24.8% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 16.3% | 15.5% | 16.7% | 18.2% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 15.0% | 14.9% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 16.5% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 15.1% | 18.6% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Shone | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 4.0% |
| John Kirk | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 3.3% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 8.8% |
| Barrett Adams | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 17.2% | 13.9% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 12.4% | 16.5% | 20.3% | 18.0% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 17.7% | 45.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.