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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.78vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.32+1.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.42+0.70vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.49-0.38vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.87-0.10vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.52-0.36vs Predicted
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7Ocean County College0.28+1.48vs Predicted
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8Rutgers University-0.35+2.15vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.14-0.12vs Predicted
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10Penn State University-1.07+1.89vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.72-0.93vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.39-2.58vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-0.19-4.06vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-3.51vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.81-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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3.85George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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3.7U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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3.62George Washington University2.490.2%1st Place
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4.9Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.64Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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8.48Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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10.15Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.88Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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11.89Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.07Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.42University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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9.94Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.49SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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13.2St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lutz | 29.9% | 22.7% | 17.9% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 14.0% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 15.4% | 16.2% | 18.7% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 17.2% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 16.2% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 3.9% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 20.6% | 17.1% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 10.2% |
| Evan Shone | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 4.5% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 3.0% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 16.5% | 16.2% | 13.1% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 17.4% | 46.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.