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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.89vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.42+1.77vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.31+1.00vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.78-0.79vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.87+0.03vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.52-0.23vs Predicted
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7Monmouth University0.85+0.21vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-0.19+1.67vs Predicted
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9Rutgers University-0.35+1.05vs Predicted
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10Penn State University-1.07+1.68vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-0.30-1.05vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.28-4.28vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-2.55vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-1.81-2.00vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-2.27-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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3.77U. S. Naval Academy2.420.1%1st Place
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4.0George Washington University2.310.1%1st Place
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3.21George Washington University2.780.2%1st Place
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5.03Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.77Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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7.21Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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9.67Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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10.05Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.68Penn State University-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.95University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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8.72Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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11.45SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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13.0St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
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13.59Princeton University-2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lutz | 26.6% | 24.0% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 14.4% | 17.2% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Mendenhall | 13.5% | 14.3% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 21.9% | 20.7% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Seitz | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 16.3% | 14.6% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Joseph Marin | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 19.0% | 18.6% | 9.0% |
| Sean Crandall | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| John Kirk | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 17.9% | 15.8% | 8.1% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 26.9% | 29.4% |
| Malcolm Steinberg | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 21.6% | 48.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.