Race 10A

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sam White 22.7% 19.7% 17.5% 15.3% 11.4% 7.3% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Lutz 28.4% 22.6% 17.7% 13.1% 10.6% 3.9% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Mendenhall 13.0% 14.3% 16.1% 15.8% 14.9% 12.5% 7.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anders Ekholm 7.0% 10.0% 12.6% 13.7% 13.0% 16.2% 12.4% 8.3% 4.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Schmidt 6.5% 5.9% 8.1% 10.7% 12.8% 15.0% 13.9% 12.9% 8.5% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jessica Kurlander 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 2.3% 3.1% 4.8% 7.1% 9.8% 12.7% 16.4% 17.6% 15.1% 6.5%
Sydney Seitz 3.3% 3.8% 4.7% 5.3% 7.4% 11.8% 13.7% 16.1% 12.5% 10.8% 5.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrett Adams 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 2.7% 2.8% 4.2% 7.6% 9.5% 12.2% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6% 9.3% 4.9% 1.0%
Sean Crandall 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 1.9% 2.6% 4.3% 5.1% 9.7% 13.1% 14.3% 16.6% 12.3% 11.6% 5.2% 0.7%
Malcolm Steinberg 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 3.8% 6.9% 10.2% 20.5% 50.9%
Mary Morgan 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% 2.3% 3.3% 6.4% 7.2% 12.8% 14.7% 13.9% 13.7% 11.6% 7.4% 1.7%
John Kirk 1.3% 1.4% 2.2% 3.0% 5.1% 5.7% 10.3% 13.0% 15.1% 15.9% 12.5% 8.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Joseph Marin 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 2.7% 5.7% 6.2% 7.7% 10.9% 15.0% 19.6% 17.6% 10.5%
Jack Cooper 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 2.0% 3.2% 3.9% 7.1% 10.2% 13.5% 28.1% 28.4%
James Morgan 14.0% 16.8% 16.4% 14.9% 13.6% 10.7% 8.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.