Race 11A

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sam White 23.5% 19.8% 17.6% 15.2% 11.3% 5.8% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Morgan 14.8% 18.6% 15.4% 16.0% 14.2% 10.2% 5.6% 4.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Lutz 26.3% 22.3% 18.8% 15.9% 8.3% 5.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anders Ekholm 8.4% 10.8% 11.2% 12.1% 13.5% 15.1% 14.7% 7.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Mendenhall 13.1% 13.5% 15.5% 14.6% 16.6% 11.9% 7.9% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Schmidt 5.0% 6.8% 8.1% 10.3% 14.2% 17.0% 13.8% 11.2% 8.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sydney Seitz 3.6% 3.4% 4.9% 6.0% 6.5% 11.7% 14.7% 16.1% 11.1% 11.9% 5.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Mary Morgan 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.9% 3.3% 2.8% 7.2% 8.8% 10.2% 13.1% 15.0% 14.7% 11.3% 6.7% 2.0%
Joseph Marin 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.8% 2.0% 4.4% 8.1% 10.0% 12.5% 14.1% 19.6% 17.1% 7.4%
Evan Shone 0.7% 0.4% 1.7% 1.4% 2.3% 2.8% 6.1% 9.3% 11.2% 13.5% 14.5% 15.2% 11.2% 7.8% 1.9%
Barrett Adams 1.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 2.9% 4.7% 6.7% 9.9% 14.4% 14.0% 14.2% 12.3% 9.2% 4.4% 1.9%
John Kirk 1.8% 1.0% 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 6.9% 8.6% 14.6% 16.9% 14.5% 13.3% 8.3% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2%
Jessica Kurlander 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 2.5% 3.5% 5.1% 7.1% 8.6% 12.3% 15.0% 19.4% 15.7% 7.6%
Jack Cooper 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 2.0% 2.3% 5.1% 7.2% 9.8% 14.1% 26.4% 29.4%
Malcolm Steinberg 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 3.9% 3.4% 6.9% 9.8% 20.6% 49.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.