Race 12A

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Jonathan Lutz 27.3% 23.2% 17.1% 13.2% 8.8% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Morgan 14.8% 17.8% 16.4% 16.2% 14.1% 8.8% 6.4% 4.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anders Ekholm 8.5% 9.8% 12.0% 11.7% 15.1% 15.7% 13.1% 8.2% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam White 22.3% 20.3% 16.5% 16.3% 12.7% 7.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Mendenhall 13.4% 13.0% 15.5% 15.7% 15.4% 11.3% 8.2% 4.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Schmidt 4.7% 6.5% 8.5% 9.9% 12.3% 18.8% 14.1% 10.9% 8.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sydney Seitz 3.7% 3.5% 5.1% 5.9% 6.0% 9.0% 17.3% 14.0% 15.5% 9.6% 6.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Evan Shone 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 5.0% 9.2% 10.4% 14.6% 14.0% 16.8% 11.8% 5.7% 1.7%
Mary Morgan 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 2.2% 3.3% 5.6% 10.2% 11.3% 14.6% 15.3% 14.7% 12.1% 5.7% 0.8%
Barrett Adams 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 4.7% 6.7% 9.7% 13.3% 14.6% 16.0% 11.8% 9.7% 4.8% 0.7%
John Kirk 1.8% 1.4% 2.8% 3.9% 4.6% 6.7% 9.6% 14.1% 14.7% 15.6% 10.5% 7.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Malcolm Steinberg 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 2.5% 2.3% 3.1% 5.3% 9.4% 21.9% 52.9%
Jack Cooper 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% 2.3% 3.2% 3.8% 6.4% 9.1% 14.0% 28.6% 29.5%
Joseph Marin 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6% 3.1% 4.7% 6.4% 8.2% 13.2% 15.1% 19.8% 16.5% 8.2%
Jessica Kurlander 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.9% 6.0% 5.7% 10.1% 14.0% 15.5% 17.9% 15.0% 5.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.