Race 1B

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marissa Golison 23.0% 20.3% 18.4% 15.2% 12.0% 5.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matt Cappetta 28.4% 25.4% 17.5% 13.1% 7.4% 5.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Robertson 10.2% 14.2% 15.6% 14.6% 14.4% 14.1% 9.3% 5.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sarah Alexander 10.1% 9.9% 11.8% 14.8% 14.6% 15.6% 11.1% 7.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Samuel Mandell 13.3% 13.9% 13.9% 14.7% 13.6% 14.1% 9.9% 4.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Paul Hart 7.4% 7.0% 9.7% 11.2% 12.5% 15.1% 14.7% 11.3% 7.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Dylan Boland 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 4.4% 6.2% 7.9% 10.5% 16.4% 16.1% 15.0% 9.4% 4.6% 1.3%
Tyler Wyatt 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 3.3% 4.7% 9.0% 13.5% 14.5% 20.2% 18.6% 8.5%
Catherine White 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.8% 3.0% 6.6% 9.1% 13.2% 23.4% 36.0%
Veronica Lane 1.0% 1.3% 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 4.1% 6.9% 12.2% 16.1% 16.7% 15.3% 11.2% 6.6%
Nina Van De Vaarst 1.8% 3.0% 3.9% 4.2% 8.5% 7.6% 15.6% 17.1% 14.3% 13.5% 6.8% 2.5% 1.2%
Bennett Brainard 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 3.2% 6.5% 7.9% 11.8% 16.5% 17.5% 16.4% 13.8%
Alexandra Polli 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 2.0% 2.5% 4.1% 7.0% 9.5% 16.5% 23.0% 32.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.