Race 5B

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marissa Golison 24.3% 18.6% 19.6% 15.5% 11.5% 5.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matt Cappetta 29.4% 23.0% 18.6% 13.9% 7.7% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Robertson 9.8% 16.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2% 14.8% 9.3% 5.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Alexander 8.9% 10.8% 12.5% 14.9% 14.7% 15.6% 12.1% 5.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Nina Van De Vaarst 2.6% 3.5% 2.9% 4.5% 7.0% 9.4% 14.4% 16.3% 15.9% 11.8% 7.0% 4.2% 0.5%
Veronica Lane 0.8% 0.8% 1.9% 3.2% 4.2% 3.6% 6.9% 14.1% 13.7% 17.0% 17.1% 12.0% 4.7%
Paul Hart 7.5% 8.9% 9.0% 9.7% 12.8% 16.1% 15.8% 9.6% 6.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Samuel Mandell 12.9% 13.1% 14.6% 15.0% 16.1% 13.7% 8.3% 4.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dylan Boland 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 4.7% 5.3% 6.9% 10.9% 16.7% 16.9% 14.7% 10.7% 4.3% 1.6%
Tyler Wyatt 0.4% 1.6% 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 3.4% 5.4% 8.0% 12.0% 15.9% 18.8% 17.1% 12.0%
Bennett Brainard 0.7% 0.5% 1.6% 1.3% 2.7% 3.3% 6.3% 9.6% 13.5% 17.2% 17.9% 15.9% 9.5%
Catherine White 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.6% 2.2% 4.8% 6.6% 8.2% 13.3% 22.9% 37.6%
Alexandra Polli 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 2.1% 2.5% 3.7% 7.7% 10.1% 13.9% 23.2% 34.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.