Race 1B

great-herring-pond-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sarah Fuller 8.2% 7.5% 8.5% 10.7% 8.8% 12.8% 11.8% 10.2% 10.4% 5.8% 4.1% 1.2%
Sean Beaulieu 10.4% 11.0% 13.0% 11.8% 10.8% 11.2% 11.9% 8.5% 5.6% 3.3% 2.2% 0.3%
Lydia Grasberger 20.8% 18.1% 15.2% 12.6% 11.4% 9.4% 6.3% 3.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Julien Guiot 13.6% 15.2% 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 9.5% 8.4% 6.1% 4.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Lindsay Doyle 15.9% 15.6% 14.1% 12.6% 12.1% 10.0% 7.3% 6.1% 3.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Christopher Dawson 3.0% 3.2% 4.3% 4.9% 6.3% 5.3% 7.4% 10.2% 13.4% 16.0% 17.1% 8.9%
Peter Girard 7.8% 8.0% 8.9% 9.9% 9.2% 11.6% 9.9% 12.6% 10.5% 6.7% 3.1% 1.8%
Peter Kerby-Miller 4.9% 4.0% 5.5% 5.1% 6.9% 7.3% 8.5% 10.6% 12.9% 14.6% 12.1% 7.6%
Graham Roeber 1.7% 2.4% 2.3% 3.6% 4.2% 5.2% 7.3% 10.0% 11.8% 18.0% 16.1% 17.4%
Peter Christensen 10.5% 10.9% 10.6% 11.3% 12.4% 11.0% 10.8% 9.3% 6.8% 4.0% 1.9% 0.5%
Amy Macdonald 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 4.2% 4.9% 5.8% 9.9% 12.9% 23.1% 29.1%
Judas Taylor 1.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 2.5% 5.5% 6.7% 9.2% 14.8% 18.2% 32.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.