Race 3B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Lindsay Doyle 14.6% 15.2% 13.3% 14.0% 13.0% 9.6% 9.0% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Christopher Dawson 3.0% 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 5.7% 7.7% 8.1% 10.4% 11.7% 16.6% 14.0% 11.1%
Peter Girard 8.5% 6.9% 7.6% 11.2% 9.1% 10.4% 11.5% 11.2% 10.7% 8.1% 3.6% 1.2%
Lydia Grasberger 19.1% 19.7% 16.6% 13.4% 10.7% 8.0% 5.5% 3.5% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Sarah Fuller 8.2% 8.6% 9.5% 9.4% 11.3% 10.5% 11.4% 10.8% 8.4% 6.4% 4.2% 1.3%
Peter Christensen 11.1% 9.2% 10.1% 12.4% 11.1% 11.7% 11.1% 9.9% 7.3% 3.5% 2.2% 0.4%
Julien Guiot 14.5% 15.4% 14.2% 12.1% 12.4% 9.6% 8.7% 6.4% 3.4% 2.5% 0.3% 0.5%
Sean Beaulieu 12.6% 11.3% 11.3% 10.5% 11.6% 11.9% 9.6% 8.8% 6.0% 3.7% 2.0% 0.7%
Graham Roeber 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.2% 4.1% 6.4% 6.9% 9.4% 11.5% 16.6% 19.1% 15.9%
Judas Taylor 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0% 4.8% 6.2% 10.4% 12.7% 21.2% 29.8%
Peter Kerby-Miller 3.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.7% 6.1% 7.4% 9.0% 11.7% 13.9% 13.6% 12.1% 9.4%
Amy Macdonald 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 3.8% 4.4% 6.6% 10.5% 14.1% 20.4% 29.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.