Race 4B

great-herring-pond-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sarah Fuller 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 10.1% 10.7% 10.7% 13.5% 10.7% 8.3% 7.5% 3.4% 1.5%
Lindsay Doyle 15.5% 16.2% 13.4% 13.2% 13.1% 9.6% 7.1% 6.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Christopher Dawson 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 5.2% 4.9% 6.7% 9.4% 8.6% 12.1% 15.4% 15.7% 11.2%
Lydia Grasberger 20.8% 17.9% 15.9% 12.7% 12.3% 7.6% 5.7% 4.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sean Beaulieu 11.2% 11.6% 11.3% 12.8% 9.6% 11.2% 9.8% 8.3% 6.3% 5.0% 2.2% 0.7%
Julien Guiot 14.9% 12.7% 14.0% 12.9% 11.7% 10.9% 8.8% 6.5% 4.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Peter Girard 8.6% 8.3% 9.2% 10.3% 8.5% 10.2% 10.3% 12.2% 9.2% 7.5% 3.8% 1.9%
Graham Roeber 2.3% 3.0% 3.6% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.8% 7.6% 11.7% 13.4% 21.7% 16.9%
Peter Kerby-Miller 2.5% 3.8% 5.0% 5.6% 7.2% 9.1% 9.0% 11.1% 15.6% 14.6% 10.7% 5.8%
Judas Taylor 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 4.3% 7.3% 9.4% 13.3% 20.2% 30.4%
Peter Christensen 9.5% 10.0% 11.7% 9.5% 12.3% 11.7% 11.3% 9.9% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 0.7%
Amy Macdonald 1.5% 2.9% 2.1% 1.8% 2.8% 3.2% 4.0% 6.6% 11.6% 14.7% 18.2% 30.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.