Race 11B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Peter Girard 6.4% 8.0% 8.9% 8.0% 10.5% 11.5% 14.4% 13.9% 10.1% 6.1% 2.2%
Lydia Grasberger 21.5% 17.1% 18.4% 12.5% 9.3% 9.4% 6.5% 3.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Lindsay Doyle 15.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.1% 12.8% 10.7% 8.9% 5.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.0%
Sean Beaulieu 10.4% 11.1% 10.2% 11.7% 13.0% 12.4% 11.9% 8.4% 6.8% 3.3% 0.8%
Sarah Fuller 8.3% 9.1% 9.5% 11.7% 10.0% 10.4% 11.9% 12.5% 8.9% 5.9% 1.8%
Christopher Dawson 3.0% 4.1% 4.2% 5.2% 5.3% 7.5% 8.4% 13.1% 15.3% 18.9% 15.0%
Julien Guiot 15.4% 16.3% 14.5% 12.3% 13.4% 9.5% 7.5% 5.3% 4.0% 1.5% 0.3%
Peter Kerby-Miller 4.9% 3.8% 4.8% 5.8% 7.9% 9.2% 9.5% 12.9% 16.0% 16.3% 8.9%
Amy Macdonald 1.6% 2.9% 2.0% 2.6% 3.8% 2.7% 5.2% 8.4% 13.6% 20.0% 37.2%
Peter Christensen 11.9% 11.6% 11.4% 13.2% 10.5% 11.4% 10.0% 8.8% 7.2% 3.6% 0.4%
Judas Taylor 1.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 3.5% 5.3% 5.8% 7.3% 13.1% 22.9% 33.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.