← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University1.85+4.06vs Predicted
-
2Boston College1.73+3.62vs Predicted
-
3Brown University2.14+1.83vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.49+5.80vs Predicted
-
5University of South Florida1.26+2.17vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island0.82+2.72vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont0.36+3.50vs Predicted
-
8Jacksonville University0.94+0.59vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University0.80+0.15vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University1.61-3.75vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.81-1.95vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.51+1.48vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.88-3.85vs Predicted
-
14Boston University1.06-5.74vs Predicted
-
15University of New Hampshire-0.61-1.44vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan0.85-7.08vs Predicted
-
17Middlebury College-1.97-0.52vs Predicted
-
18Bates College-1.91-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.06Harvard University1.8513.9%1st Place
-
5.62Boston College1.7311.8%1st Place
-
4.83Brown University2.1415.2%1st Place
-
9.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.493.8%1st Place
-
7.17University of South Florida1.268.5%1st Place
-
8.72University of Rhode Island0.824.3%1st Place
-
10.5University of Vermont0.362.9%1st Place
-
8.59Jacksonville University0.944.0%1st Place
-
9.15Tufts University0.804.4%1st Place
-
6.25Roger Williams University1.618.8%1st Place
-
9.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.814.7%1st Place
-
13.48Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.511.5%1st Place
-
9.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.884.9%1st Place
-
8.26Boston University1.065.0%1st Place
-
13.56University of New Hampshire-0.611.0%1st Place
-
8.92University of Michigan0.854.7%1st Place
-
16.48Middlebury College-1.970.4%1st Place
-
16.42Bates College-1.910.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Strom | 13.9% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Lech | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lamm | 15.2% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Demand | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Efe Guder | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Grainger | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Darby Smith | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Grant Schmidt | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Straden | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Evan Tofolo | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 22.7% | 14.1% | 5.3% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Teo | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Frady | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 23.4% | 15.6% | 5.6% |
| Ben Visco | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Aengus Onken | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 27.8% | 45.9% |
| Georgia Green | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 31.2% | 41.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.