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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+5.64vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.92+2.62vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.93+1.62vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+0.12vs Predicted
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5Santa Clara University1.42+4.49vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis0.45+6.99vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine1.06+3.85vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.62+0.75vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.74-0.65vs Predicted
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10University of Washington1.11+0.83vs Predicted
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11Santa Barbara City College1.61-2.03vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.61+0.66vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-4.27vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.61-1.34vs Predicted
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15University of Washington2.25-8.60vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley1.31-6.09vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62-4.49vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-3.66vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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4.62University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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4.62University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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4.12University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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9.49Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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12.99University of California at Davis0.450.0%1st Place
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10.85University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Hawaii1.740.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Washington1.110.0%1st Place
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8.97Santa Barbara City College1.610.0%1st Place
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12.66California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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8.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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12.66California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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6.4University of Washington2.250.1%1st Place
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9.91University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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12.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.0%1st Place
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14.34University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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16.21University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Staff | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 12.8% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 14.5% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 19.1% | 17.2% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| William Emberley | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kate Flanagan | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Long | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 23.5% | 17.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 55.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.