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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+5.66vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.93+2.59vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.22vs Predicted
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4Santa Barbara City College1.61+4.82vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay0.61+7.32vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.06+4.95vs Predicted
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7University of Washington1.11+3.63vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.92-3.51vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.74-0.71vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-0.91vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.45+2.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.62-2.87vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University1.42-3.51vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley1.31-4.29vs Predicted
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15University of Washington2.25-8.45vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-1.69vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay0.61-4.68vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62-5.51vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.66University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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4.59University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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4.22University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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8.82Santa Barbara City College1.610.0%1st Place
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12.32California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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10.95University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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10.63University of Washington1.110.0%1st Place
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4.49University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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8.29University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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9.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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13.03University of California at Davis0.450.0%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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9.49Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.71University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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6.55University of Washington2.250.1%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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12.32California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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12.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.0%1st Place
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16.24University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Staff | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 13.1% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 17.2% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Long | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Kate Flanagan | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 16.7% | 16.9% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| William Emberley | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 23.0% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 56.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.