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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.92+3.73vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.93+2.59vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+3.55vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay0.61+8.30vs Predicted
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5Santa Clara University1.42+4.47vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-1.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+1.83vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii1.74+0.29vs Predicted
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9University of Washington2.25-2.48vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.62-0.98vs Predicted
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11Santa Barbara City College1.61-2.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.31-1.73vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.02+1.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.45-1.29vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62-2.57vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine1.06-5.03vs Predicted
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17University of Washington1.11-6.13vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-1.73vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay0.61-6.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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4.59University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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6.55University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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12.3California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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9.47Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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4.11University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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8.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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8.29University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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6.52University of Washington2.250.1%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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8.97Santa Barbara City College1.610.0%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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14.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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12.71University of California at Davis0.450.0%1st Place
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12.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.0%1st Place
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10.97University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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10.87University of Washington1.110.0%1st Place
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16.27University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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12.3California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Eaton | 14.4% | 15.1% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 13.3% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 18.5% | 17.2% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Long | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 22.7% | 16.2% | 0.0% |
| William Emberley | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Kate Flanagan | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 57.7% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.