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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.76+3.64vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.82+6.11vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.30+3.10vs Predicted
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4Boston College1.53+1.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+1.80vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.55-0.65vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.11-0.14vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.83+0.06vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University0.68-0.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.18-0.02vs Predicted
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11Harvard University0.45-1.73vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont-0.34-0.13vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.73+0.40vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.64-6.00vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.11-0.79vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-1.34-1.35vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College-1.19-2.64vs Predicted
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18Bates College-1.72-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64Brown University1.7615.2%1st Place
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8.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.824.6%1st Place
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6.1University of Rhode Island1.309.8%1st Place
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5.38Boston College1.5311.7%1st Place
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6.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.078.4%1st Place
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5.35Roger Williams University1.5513.6%1st Place
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6.86Tufts University1.118.0%1st Place
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8.06University of South Florida0.836.0%1st Place
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8.52Jacksonville University0.684.6%1st Place
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9.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.183.9%1st Place
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9.27Harvard University0.454.2%1st Place
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11.87University of Vermont-0.341.9%1st Place
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13.4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.730.9%1st Place
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8.0Boston University0.645.5%1st Place
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14.21University of New Hampshire-1.110.3%1st Place
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14.65University of Michigan-1.340.8%1st Place
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14.36Middlebury College-1.190.6%1st Place
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15.43Bates College-1.720.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Brock | 15.2% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karya Basaraner | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 11.7% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor McHugh | 13.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Grace Jones | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Parker Thran | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Meara Conley | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Theresa Straw | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ocean Smith | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
| Kevin McNeill | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 8.2% |
| Buck Rathbun | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 17.1% | 17.6% | 16.0% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| Toby Jennings | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 15.5% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 20.5% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.