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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.53+4.47vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.76+2.71vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+3.80vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.64+4.13vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.55+0.33vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.30+0.11vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University0.68+1.35vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.82+0.18vs Predicted
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9Harvard University0.45+0.07vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.83-1.82vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.11-4.20vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.11+1.96vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.18-2.91vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.73-0.75vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.40-2.90vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-1.34-1.36vs Predicted
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17Bates College-1.72-1.50vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-1.19-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.47Boston College1.5311.5%1st Place
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4.71Brown University1.7615.7%1st Place
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6.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.077.7%1st Place
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8.13Boston University0.645.1%1st Place
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5.33Roger Williams University1.5513.2%1st Place
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6.11University of Rhode Island1.309.8%1st Place
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8.35Jacksonville University0.685.4%1st Place
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8.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.826.2%1st Place
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9.07Harvard University0.453.5%1st Place
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8.18University of South Florida0.835.9%1st Place
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6.8Tufts University1.116.8%1st Place
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13.96University of New Hampshire-1.111.4%1st Place
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10.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.182.8%1st Place
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13.25Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.731.4%1st Place
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12.1University of Vermont-0.402.1%1st Place
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14.64University of Michigan-1.340.6%1st Place
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15.5Bates College-1.720.1%1st Place
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14.32Middlebury College-1.190.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogelio Casellas | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Brock | 15.7% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Connor McHugh | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Thran | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Karya Basaraner | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Theresa Straw | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Grace Jones | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Brayden Benesch | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 18.2% | 12.8% |
| Meara Conley | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 9.0% |
| William Gear | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 19.4% | 20.5% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 18.8% | 35.1% |
| Toby Jennings | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 17.8% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.