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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+2.86vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.14+0.68vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.22vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.09+2.90vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-1.13vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.64+2.07vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30+2.50vs Predicted
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9University of Victoria0.93-1.75vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+1.19vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.29+1.71vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.43-0.97vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.39-4.08vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University-1.57-0.82vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-5.17vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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2.68University of California at Santa Barbara3.140.3%1st Place
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2.78University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.3%1st Place
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6.9University of California at Berkeley1.090.0%1st Place
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3.87University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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7.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Victoria0.930.0%1st Place
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11.19California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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12.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.290.0%1st Place
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11.03University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.92University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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13.18Santa Clara University-1.570.0%1st Place
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9.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.19California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristram Craig | 16.4% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Dana | 28.7% | 25.4% | 17.1% | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 26.1% | 24.4% | 20.5% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 13.7% | 14.8% | 18.3% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Ted Alley | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 16.7% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Brenyn Bierbaum | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 24.1% | 31.9% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 17.2% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Barone | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 21.3% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 16.7% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.