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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.55+4.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+4.84vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.40+9.02vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.76+0.72vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.53+0.42vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.11+0.84vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.18+3.14vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.30-1.77vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.64-1.15vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.68-1.66vs Predicted
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11Harvard University0.45-1.89vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.73+1.27vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.82-5.01vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.11+0.05vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.83-6.85vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-1.19-1.50vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-1.34-2.39vs Predicted
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18Bates College-1.72-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Roger Williams University1.5512.9%1st Place
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6.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.078.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Vermont-0.401.7%1st Place
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4.72Brown University1.7615.8%1st Place
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5.42Boston College1.5311.6%1st Place
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6.84Tufts University1.117.8%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.183.0%1st Place
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6.23University of Rhode Island1.308.3%1st Place
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7.85Boston University0.646.0%1st Place
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8.34Jacksonville University0.685.1%1st Place
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9.11Harvard University0.454.8%1st Place
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13.27Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.731.8%1st Place
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7.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.825.2%1st Place
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14.05University of New Hampshire-1.110.9%1st Place
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8.15University of South Florida0.835.2%1st Place
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14.5Middlebury College-1.190.5%1st Place
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14.61University of Michigan-1.340.8%1st Place
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15.52Bates College-1.720.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McHugh | 12.9% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Gear | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% |
| James Brock | 15.8% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meara Conley | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Parker Thran | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Theresa Straw | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 9.1% |
| Karya Basaraner | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| Grace Jones | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Toby Jennings | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 17.0% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 19.4% | 36.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.