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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.07+3.84vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.57+1.62vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.84+0.07vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+3.27vs Predicted
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5University of Victoria-0.41+3.78vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.45+2.95vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.68+2.42vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-0.28+0.55vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.02-4.05vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-2.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.23-2.85vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.31-3.26vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-4.45vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara0.40-7.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.1%1st Place
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3.62University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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3.07University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.3%1st Place
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7.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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8.78University of Victoria-0.410.0%1st Place
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8.95University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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9.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.680.0%1st Place
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8.55California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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4.95University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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7.97University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.15University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.310.0%1st Place
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8.55California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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6.69University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Leddy | 11.1% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 18.9% | 19.4% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 28.2% | 19.6% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Bishop | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Butler | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Sara | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Ziegler | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Ryder | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.