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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.02+3.82vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.07+2.71vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.84+0.06vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.57-0.42vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.40+1.27vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+0.93vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.45+1.57vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria-0.41+0.53vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.17vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-1.78vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.68-1.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.23-3.73vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-4.78vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.42-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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4.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.1%1st Place
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3.06University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.3%1st Place
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3.58University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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6.27University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.1%1st Place
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6.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.1%1st Place
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8.57University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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8.53University of Victoria-0.410.0%1st Place
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7.83University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.22California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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9.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.680.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.22California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Fargo | 11.7% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Leddy | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 26.6% | 22.4% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 19.6% | 18.8% | 18.5% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Ryder | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Bishop | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Butler | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Sara | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Blumenberg | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 45.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.