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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.57+2.59vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.07+2.71vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.02+1.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.84-0.97vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+2.69vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+0.90vs Predicted
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7University of Victoria-0.41+1.53vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.45+0.68vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.23-0.80vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.68-0.72vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-2.95vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.42-0.98vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-4.95vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara0.40-7.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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4.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.1%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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3.03University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.3%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Victoria-0.410.0%1st Place
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8.68University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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8.2University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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9.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.680.0%1st Place
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8.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.420.0%1st Place
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8.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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6.5University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 21.0% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Leddy | 11.2% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 10.8% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 27.1% | 21.9% | 18.2% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Colin Bishop | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Sara | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Butler | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Blumenberg | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 45.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Ryder | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.