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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.07+3.68vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+5.74vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.02+1.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.40+2.40vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.84-1.96vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.57-2.44vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18-0.12vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.23+0.07vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.45-0.25vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.42+0.85vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-2.95vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.68-2.60vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-4.95vs Predicted
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14University of Victoria-0.41-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.1%1st Place
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7.74University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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6.4University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.1%1st Place
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3.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.3%1st Place
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3.56University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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6.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.1%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Davis-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.75University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.420.0%1st Place
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8.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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9.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.680.0%1st Place
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8.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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8.73University of Victoria-0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Leddy | 11.1% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 11.4% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Ryder | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 27.1% | 22.2% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 20.7% | 18.4% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Sara | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Blumenberg | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 43.5% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Butler | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Colin Bishop | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.