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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.11+4.14vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.71+4.43vs Predicted
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3Washington College1.63+7.55vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.77+2.29vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.79+1.14vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.73+0.51vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.62+3.78vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.50-1.03vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.51vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.98+2.82vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.79-1.04vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook0.05+3.70vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.72+0.88vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.37-2.54vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute2.29-7.03vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-7.08vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.87-7.52vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.48-1.17vs Predicted
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19University of Buffalo-1.31-0.69vs Predicted
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20U. S. Military Academy-1.33-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.14Georgetown University3.110.2%1st Place
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6.43Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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10.55Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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6.29George Washington University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.14George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.51Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.78Villanova University1.620.0%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.82SUNY Maritime College0.980.0%1st Place
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9.96Cornell University1.790.0%1st Place
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15.7SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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13.88Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.46Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.97Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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9.48Fordham University1.870.0%1st Place
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16.83Columbia University-0.480.0%1st Place
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18.31University of Buffalo-1.310.0%1st Place
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18.37U. S. Military Academy-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gerli | 15.1% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam DiDomizio | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 8.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hennessey | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alec Chicoine | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Swikart | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Murphy | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Clayton Sasaki | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 18.3% | 21.1% | 15.6% | 4.1% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Bailey Cornog | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Loren Myers | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 25.6% | 19.9% | 13.3% |
| Peter Smith | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 13.8% | 28.7% | 39.4% |
| Charles Christianson | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 13.3% | 26.9% | 41.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.