← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Villanova University2.04+6.94vs Predicted
-
2Old Dominion University2.89+3.27vs Predicted
-
3George Washington University2.78+2.48vs Predicted
-
4Webb Institute1.56+5.28vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.49+1.20vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University1.40+3.91vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University1.27+3.37vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University2.60-2.12vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University3.06-4.38vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-6.55vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College1.21-0.33vs Predicted
-
12Villanova University1.08-0.74vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University0.47-0.22vs Predicted
-
14Drexel University-0.16+0.33vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-0.19vs Predicted
-
16Washington College1.26-5.50vs Predicted
-
17Cornell University1.03-5.76vs Predicted
-
18University of Buffalo-1.70-0.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.94Villanova University2.040.1%1st Place
-
5.27Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
-
5.48George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
-
9.28Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
-
6.2George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
-
9.91Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
-
10.37Old Dominion University1.270.0%1st Place
-
5.88Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
-
4.62Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
-
3.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.2%1st Place
-
10.67SUNY Maritime College1.210.0%1st Place
-
11.26Villanova University1.080.0%1st Place
-
12.78Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
-
14.33Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
-
14.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
-
10.5Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
-
11.24Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
-
17.02University of Buffalo-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter McMillan | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 9.9% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eamonn Austin | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Brendon Wilkins | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 13.6% | 16.2% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 22.4% | 19.7% | 17.1% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Hall | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Harrison Paige | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 16.7% | 25.5% | 9.9% |
| Peter Sander | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 18.4% | 30.2% | 11.5% |
| Paul Hart | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Robert Suriani | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| John Porterfield | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 12.3% | 71.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.