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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.06+3.83vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+3.24vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.44vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.03+7.05vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.27+5.32vs Predicted
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6Villanova University2.04+1.82vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.60-1.04vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.08+2.92vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.78-3.67vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.49-3.54vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.21-0.35vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.56-2.35vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.16+1.38vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.40-4.30vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.47-2.07vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.26-5.48vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo-1.70+0.13vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.83Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.24Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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3.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.2%1st Place
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11.05Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
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10.32Old Dominion University1.270.0%1st Place
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7.82Villanova University2.040.0%1st Place
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5.96Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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10.92Villanova University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.33George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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6.46George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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10.65SUNY Maritime College1.210.0%1st Place
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9.65Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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14.38Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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9.7Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
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12.93Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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10.52Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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17.13University of Buffalo-1.700.0%1st Place
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14.68SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Dorr | 14.3% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 9.6% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 21.5% | 21.4% | 16.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Suriani | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Brendon Wilkins | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Peter McMillan | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Paige | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Sam White | 10.8% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Hall | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Casey Brown | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 25.6% | 9.7% |
| Eamonn Austin | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% |
| Paul Hart | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| John Porterfield | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 13.7% | 72.0% |
| Peter Sander | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 19.3% | 28.1% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.