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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.06+3.87vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.56+7.55vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.49+3.41vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+1.05vs Predicted
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5Villanova University2.04+2.67vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.78-0.55vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.21+3.52vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.40+1.76vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.60-3.09vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.03+1.32vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.26-0.54vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.27-1.31vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.08-2.16vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.47-1.36vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-11.64vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-0.16-1.38vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-2.12vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo-1.70-1.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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9.55Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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6.41George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.05Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.67Villanova University2.040.1%1st Place
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5.45George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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10.52SUNY Maritime College1.210.0%1st Place
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9.76Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
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5.91Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.32Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
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10.46Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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10.69Old Dominion University1.270.0%1st Place
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10.84Villanova University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.64Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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3.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.2%1st Place
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14.62Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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14.88SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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17.0University of Buffalo-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Dorr | 12.7% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 12.3% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McMillan | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam White | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Hall | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Eamonn Austin | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Suriani | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 0.5% |
| Paul Hart | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Brendon Wilkins | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Harrison Paige | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 2.9% |
| Charles Miller | 24.4% | 20.9% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 20.2% | 25.6% | 11.5% |
| Peter Sander | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 18.3% | 30.5% | 12.5% |
| John Porterfield | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 13.7% | 70.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.