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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.78+4.60vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.49vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.06+1.67vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.49+2.24vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.56+4.28vs Predicted
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6Villanova University2.04+1.72vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.21+3.52vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.60-2.11vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.40+0.84vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.89-4.69vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.27-0.49vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.08-0.78vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.03-1.97vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-0.16+0.36vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-4.68vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.47-3.02vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.34-1.99vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo-1.70-0.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.6George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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3.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.2%1st Place
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4.67Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.24George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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9.28Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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7.72Villanova University2.040.1%1st Place
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10.52SUNY Maritime College1.210.0%1st Place
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5.89Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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9.84Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
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5.31Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.51Old Dominion University1.270.0%1st Place
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11.22Villanova University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.03Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
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14.36Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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10.32Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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12.98Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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15.01SUNY Stony Brook-0.340.0%1st Place
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17.01University of Buffalo-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam White | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 19.9% | 22.1% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 14.0% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Peter McMillan | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Richard Hall | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eamonn Austin | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendon Wilkins | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Harrison Paige | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Robert Suriani | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 17.8% | 24.2% | 9.8% |
| Paul Hart | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 3.3% |
| Kilian Duclay | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 32.9% | 13.4% |
| John Porterfield | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 12.9% | 70.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.