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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.49vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+2.79vs Predicted
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3Villanova University2.04+4.99vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.49+2.22vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.56+4.29vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.78-0.59vs Predicted
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7Drexel University-0.16+7.53vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89-2.93vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.27+1.33vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.40+0.12vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.03+0.13vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.08-0.73vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.60-7.12vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.21-3.76vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-4.65vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.34-1.01vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.47-4.05vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo-1.70-1.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.2%1st Place
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4.79Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.99Villanova University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.22George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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9.29Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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5.41George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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14.53Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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5.07Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University1.270.0%1st Place
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10.12Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.13Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
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11.27Villanova University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.88Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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10.24SUNY Maritime College1.210.0%1st Place
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10.35Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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14.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.340.0%1st Place
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12.95Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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16.95University of Buffalo-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 22.6% | 19.0% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 11.8% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McMillan | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam White | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 19.7% | 23.6% | 12.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 12.1% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendon Wilkins | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Eamonn Austin | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Robert Suriani | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Harrison Paige | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| Brad Seferian | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Hall | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Paul Hart | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Kilian Duclay | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 14.7% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% |
| John Porterfield | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 15.4% | 67.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.