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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+3.92vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.74+2.68vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.58+2.07vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.97+2.70vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.61-0.10vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia1.31+2.32vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.71+0.25vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-4.15vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.33-3.26vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.78-2.88vs Predicted
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11Queen's University0.39-0.69vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.51-1.73vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.47-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.07George Washington University2.580.1%1st Place
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6.7Cornell University1.970.1%1st Place
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4.9Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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7.25Christopher Newport University1.710.1%1st Place
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3.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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5.74U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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7.12Old Dominion University1.780.1%1st Place
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10.31Queen's University0.390.0%1st Place
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10.27Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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11.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Carter | 12.3% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 12.9% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Miranda Bakos | 10.6% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Quinn Howes | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 12.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Julia Gowell | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 16.6% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 2.6% |
| Amanda Attardi | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Carolyn Smith | 19.3% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Grace Mason | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Victoria Restivo | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 19.2% | 25.5% | 18.3% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 29.8% | 16.3% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 10.1% | 17.7% | 58.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.