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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.99vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.89+0.14vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+3.43vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.90+1.30vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.83-1.04vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+2.24vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.05-1.62vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-3.33vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99California Poly Maritime Academy1.9211.9%1st Place
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2.14Stanford University2.8940.9%1st Place
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6.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.2%1st Place
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5.3University of Southern California0.906.5%1st Place
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3.96University of Washington1.8313.8%1st Place
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8.24University of California at Los Angeles-0.960.9%1st Place
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5.38University of Hawaii1.056.2%1st Place
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4.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.678.6%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Berkeley0.988.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 11.9% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Reade Decker | 40.9% | 28.3% | 16.4% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 29.5% | 14.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 16.9% | 14.4% | 4.3% |
| Benjamin Stone | 13.8% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Conrad Kistler | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 11.9% | 71.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 16.7% | 5.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 8.6% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 1.7% |
| Will Cornell | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.