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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.01vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.89+0.17vs Predicted
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3University of Washington1.83+0.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+0.78vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.05+0.34vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.90-0.65vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98-2.03vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-1.67vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01California Poly Maritime Academy1.9211.7%1st Place
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2.17Stanford University2.8940.6%1st Place
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3.83University of Washington1.8314.6%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara1.678.0%1st Place
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5.34University of Hawaii1.056.2%1st Place
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5.35University of Southern California0.906.2%1st Place
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4.97University of California at Berkeley0.987.7%1st Place
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6.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.354.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 11.7% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.5% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Reade Decker | 40.6% | 27.9% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 14.6% | 16.3% | 15.9% | 16.4% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Henry Boeger | 8.0% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 1.9% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 4.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 4.7% |
| Will Cornell | 7.7% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 2.6% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 16.3% | 28.2% | 13.5% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 71.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.