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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.87+8.98vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+2.92vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.73+3.75vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+2.33vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.27+3.23vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.60+1.04vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.58+4.05vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.73+2.37vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.01+4.16vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.72+0.80vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.83+2.84vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.50-4.29vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.26-4.81vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-4.69vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.21-2.59vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.87-6.01vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.79-10.55vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.55-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.98Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
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4.92Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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6.75Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.33Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.23Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.04Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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11.05University of Vermont2.580.0%1st Place
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10.37Stanford University2.730.0%1st Place
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13.16Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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10.8Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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13.84University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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7.71Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.19Tufts University3.260.1%1st Place
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9.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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12.41Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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9.99University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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6.45Boston College3.790.1%1st Place
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14.46SUNY Maritime College1.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.2% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Allman | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Adam Ceely | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| Luke Muller | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 16.0% | 14.5% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Peter Girard | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 24.5% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Tong | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.7% |
| Drew Gallagher | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Richard Jones | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Adam | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 30.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.