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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.48+3.28vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.25+0.20vs Predicted
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3Bates College1.19+1.79vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.67-2.32vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.06-0.12vs Predicted
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6McGill University0.33+0.07vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy0.52-1.20vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-0.11-1.25vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-1.95-0.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.480.1%1st Place
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2.2Bowdoin College3.250.3%1st Place
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4.79Bates College1.190.0%1st Place
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1.68Tufts University3.670.5%1st Place
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4.88Dartmouth College1.060.0%1st Place
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6.07McGill University0.330.0%1st Place
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5.8Maine Maritime Academy0.520.0%1st Place
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6.75Middlebury College-0.110.0%1st Place
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8.55University of New Hampshire-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Connolly | 6.0% | 8.6% | 19.1% | 21.1% | 20.9% | 14.5% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| D.J. Hatch | 28.5% | 38.7% | 21.5% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Gilchrist | 4.2% | 5.8% | 13.9% | 19.5% | 21.6% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 0.5% |
| Ben Weigel | 53.6% | 30.6% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hylton | 3.0% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 15.3% | 17.9% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% |
| Bogdan Istrate | 1.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 18.7% | 23.2% | 22.3% | 3.1% |
| Cameron Murphy | 2.2% | 2.4% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 18.8% | 21.4% | 16.8% | 3.2% |
| Paul Hildebrand | 1.0% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 18.3% | 36.5% | 10.5% |
| Phillip Parsons | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 81.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.