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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.25+1.08vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.06+3.11vs Predicted
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3Bates College1.19+1.75vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.48+0.19vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.67-3.27vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-0.11+0.72vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy0.52-1.18vs Predicted
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8McGill University0.33-1.93vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-1.95-0.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.08Bowdoin College3.250.3%1st Place
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5.11Dartmouth College1.060.0%1st Place
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4.75Bates College1.190.0%1st Place
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4.19Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.480.1%1st Place
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1.73Tufts University3.670.5%1st Place
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6.72Middlebury College-0.110.0%1st Place
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5.82Maine Maritime Academy0.520.0%1st Place
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6.07McGill University0.330.0%1st Place
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8.54University of New Hampshire-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Hatch | 31.7% | 40.8% | 18.0% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hylton | 2.6% | 3.9% | 11.7% | 18.7% | 22.5% | 18.2% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.6% |
| Ian Gilchrist | 3.8% | 6.8% | 16.2% | 17.9% | 18.5% | 18.8% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Leo Connolly | 5.2% | 9.5% | 22.1% | 23.2% | 16.7% | 14.2% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Ben Weigel | 51.3% | 31.2% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hildebrand | 1.1% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 19.6% | 37.1% | 8.9% |
| Cameron Murphy | 1.6% | 3.2% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 19.4% | 22.8% | 15.5% | 3.4% |
| Bogdan Istrate | 2.4% | 2.4% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 21.3% | 23.5% | 4.7% |
| Phillip Parsons | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 80.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.