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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.17vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.98+5.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.25vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+7.14vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.42+0.39vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.44vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.58+2.38vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.60+3.90vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.58+1.40vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-3.08vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.73-4.09vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.59-3.48vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.50-0.62vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.23-0.66vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.79-7.28vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.19-2.30vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.46-3.96vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.34-3.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.2%1st Place
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7.3Fordham University1.988.2%1st Place
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5.25U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.2%1st Place
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11.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.4%1st Place
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5.39Georgetown University2.4213.0%1st Place
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7.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.1%1st Place
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9.38University of Pennsylvania1.584.5%1st Place
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11.9Christopher Newport University0.602.3%1st Place
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10.4Hampton University0.582.6%1st Place
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6.92George Washington University1.828.5%1st Place
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6.91Webb Institute1.737.7%1st Place
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8.52Old Dominion University1.595.5%1st Place
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12.38SUNY Maritime College0.502.2%1st Place
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13.34Drexel University0.231.6%1st Place
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7.72Cornell University1.796.9%1st Place
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13.7Washington College0.191.5%1st Place
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13.04Princeton University0.461.5%1st Place
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14.1University of Virginia-0.341.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.2% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 6.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 19.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 13.2% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.