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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.14vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.14vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.82+3.71vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.98+3.10vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.42+0.19vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.71+2.14vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.60+4.65vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.50+4.29vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59-0.71vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.71vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.46+2.46vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.58-2.49vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.23+0.39vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.19-0.44vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.58-4.97vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.34-1.82vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.79-9.20vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.0%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.6%1st Place
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6.71George Washington University1.827.6%1st Place
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7.1Fordham University1.987.9%1st Place
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5.19Georgetown University2.4214.1%1st Place
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8.14Webb Institute1.716.1%1st Place
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11.65Christopher Newport University0.602.9%1st Place
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12.29SUNY Maritime College0.501.9%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University1.595.3%1st Place
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7.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.8%1st Place
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13.46Princeton University0.461.1%1st Place
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9.51University of Pennsylvania1.584.0%1st Place
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13.39Drexel University0.231.6%1st Place
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13.56Washington College0.191.4%1st Place
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10.03Hampton University0.583.8%1st Place
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14.18University of Virginia-0.341.1%1st Place
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7.8Cornell University1.796.9%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 14.1% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 16.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 18.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 16.1% | 25.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.