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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.42+8.67vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.23+4.65vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.70+5.73vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.56+1.54vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.01+2.41vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.13+1.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+0.81vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.82-0.05vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.35+0.86vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-3.81vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.76-2.52vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College1.26+2.14vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.23+4.12vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida0.73+1.67vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.27+1.81vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.05-1.37vs Predicted
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17Bates College1.28-3.20vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.90-10.02vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University0.33-2.30vs Predicted
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20Boston University2.97-12.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.67Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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6.65Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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5.54Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.41Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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7.12Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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7.95Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.86Northeastern University2.350.0%1st Place
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6.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.48University of Rhode Island2.760.1%1st Place
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14.14Middlebury College1.260.0%1st Place
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17.12Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.230.0%1st Place
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15.67University of South Florida0.730.0%1st Place
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16.81University of New Hampshire0.270.0%1st Place
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14.63Connecticut College1.050.0%1st Place
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13.8Bates College1.280.0%1st Place
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7.98Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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16.7Wesleyan University0.330.0%1st Place
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7.74Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Wagner | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Conner Harding | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| August Sturm | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Rose | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Long | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Read | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Baskin | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 19.3% | 28.9% |
| Dylan Hancock | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 11.9% |
| River Iannaccone | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 19.7% | 25.7% |
| Sam Simonds | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 4.7% |
| Dylan Whitcraft | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Peter Lynn | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Saul | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 19.2% | 21.8% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.