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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.01+6.39vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.82+6.17vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.23+3.75vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.90+3.87vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.13+1.98vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56-0.52vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.70+1.93vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.42+1.54vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.97-1.52vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97-2.42vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-4.79vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.76-3.39vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.35-2.66vs Predicted
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14Bates College1.28-0.04vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.73+0.53vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College1.26-2.05vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire0.27-0.22vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.23-0.99vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College1.05-4.34vs Predicted
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20Wesleyan University0.33-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.17Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.75Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.87Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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6.98Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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5.48Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.93University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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9.54Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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7.48Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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6.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.61University of Rhode Island2.760.1%1st Place
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10.34Northeastern University2.350.0%1st Place
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13.96Bates College1.280.0%1st Place
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15.53University of South Florida0.730.0%1st Place
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13.95Middlebury College1.260.0%1st Place
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16.78University of New Hampshire0.270.0%1st Place
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17.01Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.230.0%1st Place
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14.66Connecticut College1.050.0%1st Place
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16.77Wesleyan University0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conner Harding | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lynn | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 13.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| August Sturm | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Read | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Rose | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Whitcraft | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 3.6% |
| Dylan Hancock | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 10.6% |
| Alexander Baskin | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 4.1% |
| River Iannaccone | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 23.9% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 26.4% |
| Sam Simonds | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 5.9% |
| Lillian Saul | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 16.7% | 25.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.