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📊 Prediction Accuracy
88.9%
Within 2 Positions
0.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.67+0.74vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.25+0.17vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.06+2.01vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.48+0.20vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy0.52+0.71vs Predicted
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6Bates College1.19-1.29vs Predicted
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7McGill University0.33-0.85vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-0.11-1.26vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-1.95-0.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.74Tufts University3.670.5%1st Place
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2.17Bowdoin College3.250.3%1st Place
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5.01Dartmouth College1.060.0%1st Place
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4.2Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.480.1%1st Place
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5.71Maine Maritime Academy0.520.0%1st Place
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4.71Bates College1.190.0%1st Place
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6.15McGill University0.330.0%1st Place
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6.74Middlebury College-0.110.0%1st Place
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8.56University of New Hampshire-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Weigel | 50.3% | 32.0% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D.J. Hatch | 30.0% | 38.7% | 20.2% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hylton | 3.7% | 4.5% | 13.5% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 18.3% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 0.7% |
| Leo Connolly | 5.9% | 10.4% | 18.5% | 24.2% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Murphy | 2.0% | 4.1% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 17.6% | 3.9% |
| Ian Gilchrist | 4.4% | 6.4% | 15.1% | 18.3% | 21.7% | 17.1% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 0.2% |
| Bogdan Istrate | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 23.7% | 22.7% | 4.6% |
| Paul Hildebrand | 1.5% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 19.3% | 36.4% | 9.7% |
| Phillip Parsons | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 9.3% | 80.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.