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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.56+4.37vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.82+6.06vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.11vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.00+7.33vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.23+1.53vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.90+1.86vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.01+0.52vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.42+1.46vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97-1.57vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College1.26+4.01vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.13-4.02vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.97-4.38vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.76-4.34vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida0.73+1.61vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University0.33+1.66vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.27+0.79vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.05-2.45vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont2.70-9.41vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.23-2.15vs Predicted
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20Bates College1.28-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.06Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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11.33Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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6.53Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.86Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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7.52Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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9.46Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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7.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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14.01Middlebury College1.260.0%1st Place
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6.98Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.62Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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8.66University of Rhode Island2.760.1%1st Place
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15.61University of South Florida0.730.0%1st Place
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16.66Wesleyan University0.330.0%1st Place
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16.79University of New Hampshire0.270.0%1st Place
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14.55Connecticut College1.050.0%1st Place
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8.59University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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16.85Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.230.0%1st Place
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14.03Bates College1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kaplan | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Beringer | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Conner Harding | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lynn | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| August Sturm | 5.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Baskin | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Read | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Hancock | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 16.5% | 11.1% |
| Lillian Saul | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 19.5% | 23.3% |
| River Iannaccone | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 20.3% | 24.6% |
| Sam Simonds | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 8.9% | 6.3% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 17.3% | 26.1% |
| Dylan Whitcraft | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.